Attribution of Extreme Precipitation with Updated Observations and CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract While the IPCC Fifth Assessment Working Group I report assessed observed changes in extreme precipitation on basis of both absolute and percentile-based indices, human influence has rarely been evaluated indices. Here we conduct a formal detection attribution analysis four The indices include annual totals from days with exceeding 99th 95th percentiles wet-day 1961–90 (R99p R95p) their contributions to total (R99pTOT R95pTOT). We compare these set newly compiled observations during 1951–2014 simulations models participating phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). show that most land areas experienced increases global warming historical period 1951–2014. new CMIP6 are able reproduce overall increases, although considerable over- or underestimations some regions. An optimal fingerprinting reveals detectable anthropogenic signals averaged over globe continents. Furthermore, greenhouse gases can be separately detected, taking other forcing into account, Asia except for R95p. In contrast, aerosols natural forcings cannot detected any at either continental scales.